The La Liga Round 22 fixture between Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano will be played at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 18:30 IST on Sunday, 1 February 2026.
Real Madrid enter the derby firmly in the title race, sitting second in the table with the league’s most potent attack. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, hover just above the relegation zone in 16th but boast underlying numbers that suggest they have been unlucky—ranking 9th in xG while underperforming expected points by nearly eight. With cool conditions forecast (8°C), this Madrid derby promises intensity, pressing battles, and contrasting game plans.
Match Overview – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Fixture | Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano |
| Competition | La Liga |
| Round | Round 22 |
| Date & Kick-Off | Sunday, 1 February 2026 – 18:30 IST |
| Venue | Santiago Bernabéu Stadium |
| Location | Madrid, Spain |
| Capacity | 83,186 |
| Surface | Grass |
| Weather | 8°C – Cool |
Match Insight: Rayo Vallecano sit 16th in the table but rank 9th in the xG standings, underperforming expected points by around –8, highlighting their inefficiency in both boxes.
Season So Far Comparison – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
| Statistic | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 2nd | 16th |
| Wins | 16 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 2 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 45 | 17 |
| Avg Goals per Match | 2.14 | 0.81 |
| Avg Goals Conceded | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| xG (Expected Goals) | 49.8 | 28.6 |
| xG per 90 | 2.22 | 1.36 |
| Clean Sheets | 10 | 6 |
Madrid’s dominance is reflected not only in results but also in elite xG numbers, while Rayo’s low goal return contrasts sharply with their chance creation.
Recent Form Guide – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid – Last 5 Matches (All Competitions)
| Date | Opponent | Competition | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01 | Benfica (A) | Champions League | Loss | 2–4 |
| 24/01 | Villarreal (A) | La Liga | Win | 2–0 |
| 20/01 | Monaco (H) | Champions League | Win | 6–1 |
| 17/01 | Levante (H) | La Liga | Win | 2–0 |
| 14/01 | Albacete (A) | Cup | Loss | 2–3 |
Rayo Vallecano – Last 5 La Liga Matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01 | Osasuna | Home | Loss | 1–3 |
| 18/01 | Celta Vigo | Away | Loss | 0–3 |
| 14/01 | Alavés | Away | Loss | 0–2 |
| 11/01 | Mallorca | Home | Win | 2–1 |
| 06/01 | Granada | Away | Win | 3–1 |
Head-to-Head – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
All-Time Meetings
| Statistic | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 15 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
Recent Head-to-Head Results
| Date | Competition | Home Team | Score | Away Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov 2025 | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 0–0 | Real Madrid |
| 09 Mar 2025 | La Liga | Real Madrid | 2–1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 15 Dec 2024 | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 3–3 | Real Madrid |
| 18 Feb 2024 | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | Real Madrid |
| 06 Nov 2023 | La Liga | Real Madrid | 0–0 | Rayo Vallecano |
Top Scorers to Watch
- Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappé – 21 goals, 4 assists (20 matches)
- Rayo Vallecano: Jorge de Frutos – 6 goals, 1 assist (19 matches)
Mbappé has been devastating in front of goal this season, while De Frutos remains Rayo’s main attacking outlet.
Predicted Lineups – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid (4-1-2-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Federico Valverde, Raúl Asencio, Dean Huijsen, Álvaro Carreras – Aurélien Tchouaméni – Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham – Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior
Rayo Vallecano (4-3-3)
Augusto Batalla – Andrei Rațiu, Florian Lejeune, Nobel Mendy, Pep Chavarría – Isi Palazón, Pathé Ciss, Pedro Díaz – Ilias Akhomach, Jorge de Frutos, Álvaro García
Unavailable Players
| Team | Players Out |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Antonio Rüdiger, Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy, Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| Rayo Vallecano | Abdul Mumin, Iván Balliu |
Statistical Projection – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
| Metric | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Probability | 68% | 10% |
| Draw Probability | 22% | — |
| Expected Possession | 60–65% | 35–40% |
| Shots on Target | 6–8 | 2–3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.2–2.6 | 0.8–1.1 |
| Clean Sheet Probability | 45% | 20% |
| Most Likely Scorer | Mbappé | De Frutos |
✅ Final Score Prediction
Real Madrid 3–0 Rayo Vallecano
Likely Scorers
- Kylian Mbappé (2)
- Vinícius Júnior
Madrid’s attacking firepower, home advantage, and title motivation point toward a comfortable victory, even if Rayo’s xG numbers suggest they may be more competitive than their league position implies.
Confidence Levels
- Real Madrid Win: 68%
- Draw: 22%
- Rayo Vallecano Win: 10%
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Suggested Tips (Informational Only)
- Real Madrid to Win
- Over 2.5 Total Goals
- Real Madrid Clean Sheet: Yes
- Anytime Scorer: Kylian Mbappé
⚠️ All predictions are for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk—please play responsibly.
FAQs – Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
1.What time is Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Kick-off is at 18:30 IST on Sunday, 1 February 2026.
2.Where is the match being played?
At the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain.
3.Who are the key players to watch?
Kylian Mbappé for Real Madrid and Jorge de Frutos for Rayo Vallecano.
4.What is the predicted score?
A 3–0 home win for Real Madrid.